Within Gimbal
Was Gimbal Extraordinary, or Simply Far Away?
Without a reliable distance, the same angular motion can support either an unusual reversal or an ordinary distant aircraft.
On this page
- Why distance changes every speed calculation
- What radar testimony says about stopping and reversing
- Which unreleased records could resolve the dispute
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Introduction
The most important unanswered question in the Florida-based Gimbal encounter is not whether the object rotated. It is how far away the object was.
Without a reliable range measurement, almost every claim about the object’s speed, acceleration, direction changes and physical size becomes uncertain. The same infrared video can support very different interpretations depending on distance. If the object was relatively close to the Navy fighter, some reconstructed flight paths appear highly unusual. If it was much farther away, the apparent motion can be explained by ordinary geometry, sensor tracking effects, or a distant aircraft viewed from an awkward angle. The missing range data therefore sits at the centre of the dispute. It is the piece of information that could potentially separate an extraordinary manoeuvre from a conventional explanation.[arXiv]arxiv.orgReconstruction of Potential Flight Paths for the January 2015 Gimbal UAPJune 15, 2023…
Within the wider story of the 2015 Roosevelt carrier group’s encounters off Florida, this is why Gimbal remains unresolved. The public has the video, audio and witness accounts, but not the complete radar record that would allow independent analysts to calculate the object’s true movement.[The Debrief]thedebrief.orgdevices of unknown origin part ii interlopers over the atlantic ryan gravesThe DebriefDevices of Unknown Origin Part II: Interlopers Over…24 Jun 2021 — In Part 2 of 'Devices of Unknown Origin, Navy pilot Ryan…
Was Gimbal Extraordinary, or Simply Far Away?
The Gimbal video records angular motion: how the object appears to move across the sensor’s field of view. What it does not directly reveal is the object’s distance from the observing aircraft.
That distinction matters because angular movement alone cannot determine actual speed. A nearby object crossing the camera’s view could be moving slowly. A very distant object producing the same angular change could be travelling much faster. Conversely, a distant aircraft can sometimes appear to make abrupt turns or shifts because of changing viewing angles between observer and target.
This is a basic problem in aviation tracking and astronomy alike: without range, apparent motion is not the same thing as true motion.[arXiv]arxiv.orgThe Scientific Investigation of Unidentified Aerial Phenomena (UAP) Using Multimodal Ground-Based ObservatoriesMay 29, 2023…
In the Gimbal debate, competing camps often begin from different distance assumptions:
- Witnesses associated with the event have suggested the object was relatively nearby, reportedly within roughly 10 nautical miles.
- Skeptical analyses frequently explore scenarios in which the object was substantially farther away, potentially tens of miles distant.
- The public record lacks the radar information needed to determine which assumption is correct.[arxiv.org]arxiv.orgReconstruction of Potential Flight Paths for the January 2015 Gimbal UAPJune 15, 2023…
Because distance feeds directly into calculations of speed, acceleration and turn radius, every later conclusion depends on that starting point.
Why Distance Changes Every Speed Calculation
Many discussions of Gimbal focus on whether the object stopped, accelerated or reversed direction. Yet all of those claims require knowing where the object was in three-dimensional space.
Consider the chain of reasoning:
- The infrared video shows a changing angle.
- Analysts convert that angle into a possible flight path.
- The conversion requires an assumed distance.
- Different distances produce dramatically different trajectories.
Researchers who reconstructed potential Gimbal flight paths demonstrated that the inferred behaviour changes substantially depending on the range chosen. At shorter distances, some reconstructed paths appear consistent with witness descriptions of abrupt directional changes. At longer distances, the same visual data can be compatible with a conventional aircraft moving on a more ordinary course.[arXiv]arxiv.orgReconstruction of Potential Flight Paths for the January 2015 Gimbal UAPJune 15, 2023…
This is why arguments over the video itself often reach a stalemate. Both sides can produce models that fit the publicly available imagery because the key input variable—range—remains unknown.
A useful comparison comes from other military infrared videos. In several cases, later analysis combining radar tracks with flight data showed that apparently unusual motion was largely a consequence of distant targets viewed through complex sensor geometry. The Pentagon’s All-domain Anomaly Resolution Office (AARO), for example, concluded that some seemingly anomalous infrared objects were actually commercial aircraft at significant distances once radar information became available.[AARO]aaro.milUAP ImageryThe radar tracks for commercial aircraft aligned with the objects, which were only seen as small dots due to their signifi…
The lesson is not that Gimbal must be a distant aircraft. Rather, it shows why range data is often the deciding factor.
What Radar Testimony Says About Stopping and Reversing
One reason the Gimbal case remains influential is that the strongest claims do not come from the video itself. They come from reported radar observations.
Former Navy aviator Ryan Graves and others associated with the Roosevelt encounters have described radar contacts that behaved in ways they considered unusual. According to later accounts, the object associated with the Gimbal event appeared on tactical displays and was observed as part of a broader group of contacts. Graves has also discussed reports that the tracked object appeared to slow, stop or reverse direction from the perspective of the aircrew’s radar display.[thedebrief.org]thedebrief.orgdevices of unknown origin part ii interlopers over the atlantic ryan gravesThe DebriefDevices of Unknown Origin Part II: Interlopers Over…24 Jun 2021 — In Part 2 of 'Devices of Unknown Origin, Navy pilot Ryan…
Those claims are important because radar can provide information unavailable in the infrared clip, including:
- Range from the observing aircraft.
- Relative speed.
- Track history.
- Changes in heading over time.
If accurate, such data would be far more diagnostic than the short public video.
The difficulty is that the public has not seen the underlying radar files. Independent researchers therefore cannot verify whether the reported reversal occurred exactly as remembered, whether it reflected sensor fusion effects, or whether alternative interpretations exist. Even supporters of the more unusual interpretation acknowledge that the decisive evidence would come from the unreleased sensor record rather than from the infrared imagery alone.[arXiv]arxiv.orgReconstruction of Potential Flight Paths for the January 2015 Gimbal UAPJune 15, 2023…
As a result, the debate often becomes a comparison between witness testimony and image-based reconstruction rather than a direct examination of the raw tracking data.
Why the Video Cannot Settle the Question Alone
A common misunderstanding is that the Gimbal footage itself proves extraordinary performance.
In reality, the public clip provides only a limited subset of the information collected during the encounter. It shows an infrared target, aircraft symbology and cockpit audio, but not the full sensor picture available to the aircrew at the time.[The Debrief]thedebrief.orgdevices of unknown origin part ii interlopers over the atlantic ryan gravesThe DebriefDevices of Unknown Origin Part II: Interlopers Over…24 Jun 2021 — In Part 2 of 'Devices of Unknown Origin, Navy pilot Ryan…
This limitation affects several major claims:
Acceleration: Apparent motion on screen does not directly reveal true acceleration without distance.
Direction changes: A camera tracking a target from a moving aircraft can create apparent changes in movement that differ from the object’s actual flight path.
Size: An object’s apparent dimensions depend heavily on range.
Formation behaviour: Audio references to multiple contacts do not provide visual confirmation of their exact positions or movements.
Because those quantities depend on information missing from the public release, analysts can reach very different conclusions while examining the same 34-second clip.[Reddit]reddit.com“Gimbal Footage” Question“Gimbal Footage” Question
Which Unreleased Records Could Resolve the Dispute
Several categories of data could dramatically narrow the range of possible explanations.
Full radar tracks
The most important missing evidence is the radar track history associated with the encounter. A complete record could reveal whether the object maintained a conventional flight path, executed abrupt manoeuvres, or changed speed in ways inconsistent with known aircraft. Range measurements would also permit accurate reconstruction of its trajectory.[arXiv]arxiv.orgReconstruction of Potential Flight Paths for the January 2015 Gimbal UAPJune 15, 2023…
Sensor-fusion records
Modern Navy aircraft combine information from multiple sensors. Access to the fused tactical picture seen by the pilots could show how many contacts were present, where they were located and whether they moved together as reported.[The Debrief]thedebrief.orgdevices of unknown origin part ii interlopers over the atlantic ryan gravesThe DebriefDevices of Unknown Origin Part II: Interlopers Over…24 Jun 2021 — In Part 2 of 'Devices of Unknown Origin, Navy pilot Ryan…
Longer infrared footage
The public clip is brief. Additional footage before and after the released segment could provide more context about tracking behaviour, target motion and changes in geometry between aircraft and object.[The Debrief]thedebrief.orgdevices of unknown origin part ii interlopers over the atlantic ryan gravesThe DebriefDevices of Unknown Origin Part II: Interlopers Over…24 Jun 2021 — In Part 2 of 'Devices of Unknown Origin, Navy pilot Ryan…
Correlated aircraft and airspace data
Flight records, transponder information and military exercise logs could help determine whether known aircraft were operating in the relevant airspace. Such cross-checking has proven valuable in other UAP investigations.[AARO]aaro.milUAP ImageryThe radar tracks for commercial aircraft aligned with the objects, which were only seen as small dots due to their signifi…
Why This Matters in Florida’s UFO History
The Gimbal encounter occupies a prominent place in Florida’s modern UFO history because it combines military witnesses, advanced sensors and operations conducted off the state’s Atlantic coast. Yet the case illustrates a broader lesson about evidence.
The debate is often framed as a choice between believing the pilots or believing a conventional explanation. In practice, the central issue is more technical. Neither side possesses the complete dataset needed to demonstrate its case conclusively.
The most dramatic interpretation depends on radar-derived information that has not been released publicly. The most conventional interpretation depends on distance estimates that also cannot be confirmed from the available record. Until reliable range and track data become available, the key question remains unresolved: was the object performing an extraordinary reversal, or was it simply much farther away than some witnesses believed?[arxiv.org]arxiv.orgReconstruction of Potential Flight Paths for the January 2015 Gimbal UAPJune 15, 2023…
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Endnotes
1.
Source: arxiv.org
Link:https://arxiv.org/abs/2306.08773
Source snippet
Reconstruction of Potential Flight Paths for the January 2015 Gimbal UAPJune 15, 2023...
Published: June 15, 2023
2.
Source: arxiv.org
Link:https://arxiv.org/abs/2305.18566
Source snippet
The Scientific Investigation of Unidentified Aerial Phenomena (UAP) Using Multimodal Ground-Based ObservatoriesMay 29, 2023...
Published: May 29, 2023
3.
Source: aaro.mil
Link:https://www.aaro.mil/UAP-Cases/Official-UAP-Imagery/
Source snippet
UAP ImageryThe radar tracks for commercial aircraft aligned with the objects, which were only seen as small dots due to their signifi...
4.
Source: podscripts.co
Title: Pod Scripts The Joe Rogan Experience
Link:https://podscripts.co/podcasts/the-joe-rogan-experience/1883-ryan-graves
Source snippet
US Navy and F/A-18F pilot Ryan Graves was the first active duty pilot to publicly disclose regular sightings of Unidentified Aerial Pheno...
5.
Source: reddit.com
Title: “Gimbal Footage” Question
Link:https://www.reddit.com/r/ufo/comments/sjrrkz/gimbal_footage_question_pilot_says_there_is_a/
6.
Source: reddit.com
Link:https://www.reddit.com/r/UFOs/comments/14m3ki7/last_9_seconds_of_the_gimbal_video_stabilised_to/
7.
Source: reddit.com
Link:https://www.reddit.com/r/UFOs/comments/tu837d/great_video_showing_the_details_of_the_gimbal/
8.
Source: thedebrief.org
Title: devices of unknown origin part ii interlopers over the atlantic ryan graves
Link:https://thedebrief.org/devices-of-unknown-origin-part-ii-interlopers-over-the-atlantic-ryan-graves/
Source snippet
The DebriefDevices of Unknown Origin Part II: Interlopers Over...24 Jun 2021 — In Part 2 of 'Devices of Unknown Origin, Navy pilot Ryan...
Additional References
9.
Source: oversight.house.gov
Title: Ryan HOC Testimony
Link:https://oversight.house.gov/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/Ryan-HOC-Testimony.pdf
Source snippet
Oversight CommitteeRyan HOC Testimony25 Jul 2023 — My name is Ryan “FOBS” Graves and I am a former F-18 pilot with over a decade of servi...
10.
Source: researchgate.net
Link:https://www.researchgate.net/publication/371606041_Reconstruction_of_Potential_Flight_Paths_for_the_January_2015_Gimbal_UAP
Source snippet
Reconstruction of Potential Flight Paths for the January...Using data from the ATFLIR video, it is possible to reconstruct p...
11.
Source: leonarddavid.com
Title: debunking navy ufo videos
Link:https://www.leonarddavid.com/debunking-navy-ufo-videos/
Source snippet
Leonard DavidDebunking Navy “UFO” Videos30 Apr 2020 — West has assessed the trio of videos, called FLIR, GIMBAL and GOFAST. “The FLIR vid...
12.
Source: facebook.com
Link:https://www.facebook.com/209times/posts/breaking-the-pentagon-has-released-a-fourth-batch-of-ufo-evidence-including-docu/1463161452519442/
13.
Source: facebook.com
Link:https://www.facebook.com/wxyzdetroit/posts/experts-have-urged-caution-around-the-release-of-the-new-files-warning-that-uap-/1471793191642975/
14.
Source: facebook.com
Link:https://www.facebook.com/NBCNews/posts/officials-played-a-video-during-the-hearing-taken-from-an-airborne-pilots-cockpi/6818634048156567/
15.
Source: youtu.be
Link:https://youtu.be/WsbMIm9QtEA
Source snippet
Reconstruction of Potential Flight Paths for the January 2015 Gimbal UAP...
Published: January 2015
16.
Source: youtube.com
Link:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WVrlG8RhIGU
17.
Source: youtube.com
Link:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wCT3HdHokaw
18.
Source: youtube.com
Link:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FGHeu5GeR-0